Enrollment decline expected to continue
Demographer says Howell K-8 numbers will fall to 6,772 pupils
BY TOYNETT HALL Staff Writer
AHowell K-8 School District enrollment projection report prepared by Stan Slachetka of T&M Associates has revealed that Howell's public schools will continue to experience a decline in enrollment over the next five years.

At the present time, enrollment in the Howell school district stands at 7,060 pupils (K-8 and special education pupils combined). As recently as the 2002-03 school year the district's enrollment stood at 7,430 pupils.

The information provided to the board indicates that in the 2008-09 school year, the demographer projects the enrollment to drop to 6,957 pupils; in 2009-10, to 6,844 pupils; in 2010-11, to 6,840 pupils; in 2011-12, to 6,788 pupils; and in 2012-13, to 6,772 pupils.

The demographer's report was conducted as Board of Education members and school district administrators consider whether one of the schools in the township should be closed.

No decision on that issue has been made by the board and the $110 million budget that has been introduced for the 2008-09 school year includes funding for all 13 schools.

According to Slachetka, the projection methodology that was used was the cohort survival method and the growth model.

"The cohort survival method uses historic enrollment data and birth records to estimate future enrollments," while the growth model "takes into consideration a community's growth rate to estimate the amount of additional school age children to be generated from new residential development, and uses certificates of occupancy (COs), approved and pending development applications, and demographic multipliers to predict enrollments," according to Slachetka.

Although Slachetka seemed confident in the results of the study, saying, "We may be off about a handful below or above, but overall projections are pretty much head on," he indicated that there are external factors that could change the outcome of his analysis.

According to Slachetka, school administrators need to be vigilant of changes in the "economic trends and housing market, in addition to affordable housing issues."

"In June the state Council on Affordable Housing will adopt new numbers and regulations," which will force Howell officials to revise their affordable housing plans, he said.

During the March 12 meeting of the board's facilities committee, residents asked questions about the capacity of each of the district's 13 buildings after seeing an increasing enrollment at some of the schools.

Facilities committee members said it was a moot point and said the district is adequately equipped to accommodate 8,000 pupils.

Some residents did not seem satisfied with that answer. They asked how the option of closing a school could be discussed when no one could answer questions about the capacity of each school and their operating costs.

Many of the residents wanted a definite answer as to whether the board will be closing a school in September. The Ardena School has been mentioned as an elementary school that could be closed if the board decides to move in that direction.

The question about a school closing was not answered on March 12. It was noted that the possibility of closing a school was still being discussed in committee and has not been discussed at the board level.

Superintendent of Schools Enid Golden said, "Nothing has been finalized by the state yet. We are in a very precarious position. However, (the county superintendent) told us that for planning purposes only, to go forward and that we would be receiving one waiver, for our non-recurring expense."

The board's finance committee was expected to review the budget on March 17, prior to the March 19 public hearing on the budget for the coming school year.